After surplus showers across large parts of India, the south-west monsoon retreat is finally underway, beginning from western Rajasthan and Kutch. Following the usual weather pattern, the southwest monsoon typically makes its onset over Kerala by June 1 and covers the entire country by the first week of July. The withdrawal from northwest India usually begins from the middle of Sept🌼ember and ends by October 15.
However, due to certain changes in the climate scenario, this year's monsoon stayed a bit longer and the country received 880.8 mm rainfall between June 1 and Septembe🍃r 23 against the normal of 837.7🔯 mm for the period under review.
Monsoon retreat facts: Surplus rains, low-pressure belt
The process of monsoon retreat has brought five per cent excess rains across the🔜 country. However, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted widespread rains in several regions over the coming week.
"Southwest monsoon ♈has withdrawn from some parts of West Rajasthan and Kachchh on September 23, 2024 against the normal date of September 17. Conditions are favourable for further withdrawal of southwest monsoon from some more parts of West Rajasthan and adjoining areas of Punjab, Haryana and Gujarat during next 24 hours", IMD said.
While most of the country received normal to excess showers, nine of the 36 meteorological subdivisions have recorded excess rains, including Rajasthan (74 percent), Gujarat (68 percent), Maharashtr﷽a, Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh.
Five subdivisions experienced deficient rainfall including Jammu and Kashmir (26 percent), Himachal Pradesh (20 percent), Arunachal Pradesh (30 perc𝓀ent), Bihar (28ꦺ percent) and Punjab (27 percent).
While the retreat process is underway, weather office has predicted formation of a l✤ow pressure area over west-central Bay of Bengal on Tuesday, which could bℱring rains to some states along the eastern coast.
Very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall is al꧟so likely to take place over coastal and north interior Karnataka, Maharashtra, Goa, central, east and north𓆏east India during the coming week.
Extended monsoon: A shift in weather pattern
According to climate experts, the primary reason behind the extended monsoon is the slowed-down southಞwest monsoon onset and withdrawal lea🧜ding to heavier-than-expected rainfall in northern and western parts of the country.
This ye🦋ar the arid and semi-arid regions of western states like Gujarat and Rajaꩲsthan have witnessed a shift from moderate monsoons to heavy and very heavy ones leading to extreme conditions like floods.
Experts point to climate change as the fundament🗹al reason behind the unpredictable and intens🍷ifying monsoon patterns in India.
Changes in the ocean surface temperat♎ure towards the warmer directಞion temperatures are playing a pivotal role in bringing atmospheric changes and increasing moisture levels leading to catastrophic events triggered by heavier torrential downpours
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Extended monsoon: Kharif crops impacted
From erratic rainfall leading to natural disasters to the damage to the crops- the extended prevalence of monsoon has thrown a huge challenge for the farmers as well as the governments as they are all conce༺rned about the devastating consequences of prolonged rainfall.
With excess rainfall leading to excess rain-soaking by the fields, the harvested produ𓃲ction is deeply affected leading to an increaꦺsed risk of crop losses as the crops Kharif crops like paddy, maize, and cotton are highly sensitive to moisture levels.
However, despite problems in production due to excess rains, the sowing of kharif crops reached their best levels in recent years. According to the latest data from the government, kharif crops till September 20 were sown across approximately 110.46 million hectares, reflecting a 💮1.51 per cent increase compared to the same period last year, and 0.80 per cent above the normal acreage, defined as๊ the average of the past five years (2018-19 to 2022-23). The standouts this season were paddy, arhar, groundnut, soybean, and maize.
Severe winter likely due to La Nina effects
Following an extended monsoon, the global weather watchdog World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) predicted a 'severe' winte💛r for the Indian suncontinent this year owing to the 60 percent possibility of L▨a Niña conditions towards the end of this year.
From scorching heatwaves during summer to extended monsoons, the weather patterns of the Indian subcontinent have been largely affected by the sh🍬ifts in climate scenario. La Nina and El Nino, the intensity of the two opposite weather conditions are visibly increasing due to anthropogenic or man-made climate change events.
The El Nino and La Nina events
El Nino and L𝓀a Nina, the opposite extremes in the El Niño/ꦅSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, amplify the unpredictability of weather patterns. While El Niño causes weakened monsoons, La Nina leads to incessant rains and catastrophic floods.
El Niño, in simple words🅘, is defined as a weather pattern involving abnormal warming of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean leading to extreme heat in many parts of the world and the ocean🐽.
According to National Ocean♔ic and Atmospheric Administrat🍸ion (NOAA), La Niña, on the other hand, demonstrates the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface. These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward.
