The Women's Super League title race is firmly in Chelsea's control as the Blues sit seven points clear at the summit. (More Football News)
ꦺThe only time there was a bigger gap in the WSL standings after the top team had played exactly 12 games was in 2016-17, when Manchester City were 10 points clear of Chelsea.
🌳This time around, however, Man City are only part of a tightly congested and fascinating chasing pack.
🎀That group is headed up by rivals Manchester United, who continue to show they should be ignored at their opponents' peril as they sit second, two points ahead of City in third, with Gareth Taylor's team in turn one point in front of fourth-place Arsenal.
🎐On Sunday, City welcome Arsenal to the Joie Stadium and both teams know this is a must-win in order to remain prominent in the race for a spot in Europe next season.
🧜Arsenal were beaten 1-0 last time out at Chelsea, but they are unbeaten in their last four matches against City, drawing a thriller 2-2 in September this season, but winning the previous three beforehand, all by 2-1 scorelines.
🐻City will want to banish this record and put down a marker in this battle to emerge as Chelsea's main challengers. In the reverse fixture at the Emirates Stadium on the opening day, it was a keenly fought affair filled with goals and drama, with plenty of learnings for both sides to take.
Last time out
🌳Vivianne Miedema made her first return to the Emirates in that match after the Gunners decided not to renew the WSL's all-time leading scorer contract, resulting in her penning her signature with rival title contenders City in a blockbuster move.
ꦬArsenal broke the deadlock first with Frida Maanum scoring. Miedema, however, was always going to have a say in this game and brought the two sides level by scoring her first WSL goal for City.
𓆉Jess Park rifled home a shot into the top-right corner from the edge of the 18-yard box, leaving the Emirates faithful in despair.
ꦫBeth Mead still had a role to play in what was an enthralling encounter and in the 81st minute she scored the equaliser, which meant the two sides would share the points on the opening day.
ꦬMead continued her form as the leading goalscorer on the WSL opening weekend, making it eight such goals, having previously netted a brace on the opening day of the 2021-22 season against Chelsea and a double versus Brighton in the 2022-23 campaign.
🦹With Arsenal unbeaten in their last four WSL games against City, they are the only team currently on an unbeaten run of longer than one game against Taylor's team, so they may feel confident as they travel north.
🅠City have won twice as many points from behind as any other team in the WSL this season (10) while only in 2018-19 have the Citizens rescued more points from more losing positions in a single top-flight campaign (13).
🌠After coming from behind on the opening day of the season, Taylor's side will also feel confident they have the ability to weather the storm.
🐬The Gunners have never before lost their first two WSL away games of a calendar year, while they are also unbeaten in their last seven league visits to the North West (W4 D3).
Swapsies – Red to Blue, Blue to Red
🌳It has now widely been reported that Arsenal's summer transfer activity and not renewing Miedema's contract was a financial decision from the club.
ﷺIn a recent interview with Jonas Eidevall after he left the club, he explained it was the choice between bringing Spanish 2023 World Cup winner Mariona Caldentey from Barcelona or renewing Miedema.
﷽Was this a wise decision from the Gunners, and how have they both performed respectively?
ꦜMiedema has netted four goals from 2.88 xG this season in the WSL, having 26 shots in total. Her shot conversion rate sits at 15.38%, while she has also created six chances, though only accumulated 0.66 xA.
♚She was also out of action in that time from October 6, when she played against West Ham, to her return against Man Utd after the winter break.
ꦫIn her short career in a City shirt, she has featured eight times in all competitions and scored six goals. She particularly shone against Barcelona in their Champions League group-stage 2-0 victory.
🌟Caldentey has scored three goals this season (the third-best among Arsenal players), while her 3.49 xG is second only to Alessia Russo. She has had six big chances this term (behind only Stina Blackstenius and Russo, both eight), scoring two.
💎Caldentey has created the second-most chances (18, behind McCabe's 27), but has provided just one assist from 3.47 xA.
𒈔It could be considered she has made a strong start to her Arsenal career with nine goals in 23 appearances. She has also been key to the renaissance under Renee Slegers, helping to turn their Champions League campaign around with four goals and two assists in six games.
𓆉With the WSL window closing on Thursday, the biggest news of the window was the move from Manchester to London for Chloe Kelly.
🎀The Lionesses forward had fallen out of favour with Taylor this season and so pushed for a deadline-day move, having only played 165 minutes in the WSL this season.
꧙Some will consider it a strange move on City's part with both sides vying to finish in European qualification places. Allowing one of your most talented attacking players to join a rival seems odd.
💦She will be ineligible to play in the tie this weekend against her parent club, but only time will tell if this was a mistake or not by the Citizens.
🌱With more drama on deadline day, Laura Wienroither made her way in the opposite direction to join City and link up again with former teammate Miedema, both players suffering with ACL injuries within six months of each other. Taylor will be hoping she can bring some much-needed cover with the likes of Alex Greenwood out.
It's decision time
🃏One area in which Taylor could be criticised this season is his decision not to have a recognised number one. This combined with their defensive frailties could be a factor as to why they have not been able to keep pace in the title race.
ꦚGreenwood's absence has been felt by City, and the average goals against without her in the team is 1.7, as opposed to 0.8 when she is available. City have kept four clean sheets when Greenwood has played.
🌃Greenwood still leads the way for interceptions (10) among City defenders, while only Kerstin Casparij (six) has made more blocks this term (four). Greenwood has also won the second-most duels (37) behind Casparij (45).
🔜It is clear this city backline needs stability and a leader and that must come from between the sticks. So who will he choose, Ayaka Yamashita or Khiara Keating?
♔Yamashita has played seven games in the WSL this year, with Keating playing five.
ꦗKeating has kept more clean sheets (three to Yamashita's two) but has conceded just one goal fewer than the Japan international (six compared to seven).
♚Yamashita boasts the better save percentage (65.22% to Keating's 57.14%) and has made 15 saves from the 56 shots she has faced (Keating has made nine saves from 41 shots faced).
♉Yamashita has conceded 7.2 expected goals on target (xGoT) compared to Keating's 5.28 xGoT.
ꦐKeating, however, has made one error leading to a goal and two errors leading to shots this term, while Yamashita has made none.
🀅Keating was the 2023-24 Golden Glove winner, keeping nine clean sheets across the course of the season. Fighting off England teammates Mary Earps (seven) and Hannah Hampton (six).
꧅Overall, City have faced the fewest shots (96) in the WSL this season, but they have conceded 14 times, more than Man Utd (five) and Chelsea and Arsenal (both six).
♚Their five clean sheets are also fewer than those three teams (all with eight), though only Arsenal and Chelsea have a lower xGA than City's 11.46.
🌱It will be key to City's success if Taylor can settle on a keeper to ensure their backline has a clear voice.
Pipped at the death
𝓀Slegers would have been disappointed after a spirited performance by her Arsenal side not to come away with a point last weekend against champions-elect, Chelsea.
♏Arsenal conceded 2.94 xGA against Chelsea last weekend, facing 21 shots in total – nine of those were on target and 14 came from inside the box, the most they had faced since January 2018 (11 v Chelsea). Chelsea also had six big chances.
🐽By contrast, Arsenal managed just 10 shots, with two on target, and created just 1.05 xG. They had no big chances, though they did have more final third entries (55 to Chelsea's 48).
🐻Arsenal also had slightly more possession (53.6%) and made more passes overall (480 to 406), with 231 of those coming in the opposition half.
♓The Gunners boast one of the best defensive records in the WSL though. They have conceded the joint-second-fewest goals (six, level with Chelsea), behind only Man Utd (five). City have conceded 14.
♊They have conceded the fewest xGA in the league, 9.67, bettering Chelsea's 10.04 and City's 11.46. Arsenal have also faced the second-fewest shots (102), behind only City (96).
💮City are the second-highest goalscorers this season in the WSL with 27, whilst Arsenal sit second with 25. However, they both trail Chelsea, who have 37.
𒐪Arsenal also rank third for expected goals (23.92) behind Chelsea (28.23) and City (26.93) and total shots (193) – City have had 208, while Chelsea have had 241. However, Arsenal's shot conversion rate is only 12.95%, the fifth-best in the league - City's is only marginally better at 12.98%.
𓆏City (497 currently) are just three goals away from becoming the third team to score 500 goals in the WSL after Chelsea (623) and Arsenal (602); Toni Duggan scored their first goal in the competition against Arsenal back in May 2014.
⛦City fans will have been keen to see Katie McCabe lose her cool in the final moments of the game and see red. She will be unavailable for Arsenal this weekend, and it will be a big loss for the Gunners.
🤪McCabe has created 12 big chances so far this term and ranks first in the league for overall chances created 27. Guro Reiten and Lauren Hemp are hot on her heels with 26 respectively. She certainly will be a big miss for the Gunners this weekend.
💟In the WSL this season, City have lost both games that Shaw has not played in. They have scored just three times in those matches, averaging 1.5 goals per game, compared to 2.4 with her in the team.
꧙Of the 10 games she has played this season, City have lost just one (W8 D1). The Jamaican came on in the 77th minute last weekend against Aston Villa, and they will be hoping she can start on Sunday.
What does the Opta supercomputer predict?
🔥The Opta supercomputer this weekend is predicting a home victory for City, albeit all three outcomes have a decent chance. Ahead of the intriguing encounter, the hosts are handed a win probability of 46.1%, with the draw given a 26.7% chance and the Londoners' hopes of a win rate at just 27.3%.
﷽Mead is just one goal away from becoming the fourth player to score 50 or more WSL goals for Arsenal, joining a group that, of course, includes Miedema (80), as well as Kim Little (55) and Jordan Nobbs (52). The forward netted that equaliser in the reverse fixture with City.
ꦏOnly Khadija Shaw (10) and Alessia Russo (nine) have been directly involved in more WSL goals this season than City's Mary Fowler (eight – four goals, four assists).
🦩In-form Fowler is on the longest current streak of scoring or assisting in the competition (four games, including three goals and three assists), so there are exciting players to look out for in both teams.
ไWe are set for a close game and Arsenal will hope it proves even closer than the supercomputer suggests. If the reverse fixture was anything to go by, we should see goals and lots of them.
