This story was published as part of Outlook Magazine's 'Future Tense' issue, dated October 11, 2024. To read more stories from the Issue, click here.
As soon as the sun sank behind the dusky northern peaks, a small band of Indian Army soldiers prepared to move again. They had spent the ent💙ire day waiting, advancing only after nightfall, slipping quietly through the forest under the cover of darkness. Only few knew about the operation which, unlike most encounters of that time, was unfolding high in the mountains, far from any settlem💜ents.
After three tiring days with no cover in sight—only a sprawling meadow that shimmered under a vast, dark blue sky—someone pointed towards a mudhouse. Despite the odds, the operation was successful. The intel was right about Alvi, a relative of tasked with reviving the Jaish e Mohammad (JeM) in Kashmir and helping carry out spectacular attacks like the 2019 Pulwama a♛ttack.
Mohd Ismal Alvi alias Lamboo was killed in July 2021 in the upper reaches of Nagbe꧋ran, close to the twin alpine lakes Tarsar and Marsar, in what was one of the important encounters carried out in Kashmir after the abrogation of Article 370 and 35 A in August 2019, a major time stamp in the region that changed it significantly.
In the pa൩st two years, militant recruitment in Kashmir has dropped dramatically. However, a new wave of violence has hit Jammu province for the first time in over a decade. Areas that were hotspots in the 1990s and early 2000s, and had become☂ violence-free by 2008-2010, are now once again witnessing militancy, if not a full-blown insurgency.
Security officials privy to the developments acknowledge the presence of at least about 35-40 highly trained militants spread across the province♊. Several Indian Army officials say that they are mostly foreigners, armed with AKs, sniper-size M4 rifles and upgraded navigation and communication devices.
“They have a tactical advantage due ꧟to the terrain as well. They are also moving with weapons, we believe, salvaged from Afghanistan in the aftermath of the US withdrawal in 2021,” an official said.
Some of the ammunition were recovered by security forces in Jammu almost around the same time when si🎐milar US weaponry were recovered from members of Tehreek-e-Taliban in Pakistan🌞.
Th𝔉is year’s worst terror attack was carried out on a bus carrying Hindu pilgrims in Reasi district of Jammu. Nine people died in the attack and 33 others suffered grievous injuries, The attack sent shockwaves across the country and reinforced the belief that a true state of norma🍬lcy is yet to be achieved in Jammu and Kashmir.
Earlier in July, Minister of State for Home Affairs told the Upper House of Parliament that since Article 370 was revoked, the government forces had killed over 900 militants in Jammu and Kashmir, a big number that included commander Alvi and other top names known to almost everyone closely following Kashmir’s new insurgency since 2014. This insurgency is different from the one in the 1990s when tens of thousands crossed the Line of Control (LoC) into Pakistan to return as ‘mujahids’.
The recruitment this time peaked following the killing 💛of Hizbul Mujahideen commander Burhan Wani in 2016. Hizb emerged as the main force behind this resurgence, led by Wani and others like Riyaz Naikoo and Yasin Yatoo. At the same time, Lashkar e Toiba (LeT) also became a prominent recruiting outfit with underground networks developed by Abu Qasim, Sheikh Abbas and Majid Zargar.
As these networks expanꦏded, outfits like Al Badr, Tehreek ul Mujahideen–previously active in the 1990s–and, Ansar Ghazwat ul Hind (AGH) also surfaced on the militant map, only to turn into local franchises of global terror outfits like DAESH and Al Qaeda. Officials later claimed that these group could not gain prominence due to lack of alternative networks or supply chains for receiving arms and other logistic support. As militant recruitments plunged over the years, the total number of active militants has also declined sharply. Today, it is as low as it was in 2013; much before the tech-savvy Wani’s death rekindled the insurgency in the valley.
Following the abrogation in the midst of sustained pressure on Pakistan–the main backer of Kashmir insurgency–by the FATF ove🐽r terror financing, new outfits surfaced that appeared more indigenous, such as The Resistance Front (TRF), People’s Anti-Fascist Front (PAFF) and Kashmir Tigers. They claimed attacks both in Kashmir as well in Jammu, many of which were carried out against local civilians, non-local labourers and members of the minority community like Kashmiri Pandits. The🧸 spate of attack on unarmed civilians marked another shift after 2019.
Alvi’s killing in July 2021 may have thwarted some of JeM’s plan ♚for Kashmir but by October, they launched offensives in the forest areas of Poonch and Rajouri, south of the Pir Panjal Range. In an attack in Dera Ki Gali area of Chamrair forest, at least five Army soldiers including a Junior Commissioned Officer, were killed. This was followed by the death of two more soldiers a week later. Since then, at least 50 security personnel, including 40 Army members and one from the IAF, have been killed in terrorist-related incidents in Jꦰammu, gradually turning the region into a battleground.
While militancy related incidents decreased proportionally i♛n Kashmir, they spiked in Jammu areas includ🌟ing Udhampur, Reasi, Kathua, Poonch-Rajouri, Kishtwar and Doda, where search and counter offensive operations against the militants are ongoing.
“They are operationally skilled 𓄧and have achieved a few objectives like bringing this region back on the map of violence. Although this region has se🦂en worse, it was not the case for a long time now,” a senior Army officer said.
Fighting in the🅺se vast forest areas and grasslands without proper leads is a dangerous gambit even for trained forces who have what the military men refer to as ‘theatre superiority’. Unlike Kashmir, besides leveraging the difficult terrain, the flow of intel is also slow, according to a security official posted in Doda. Their movement is sometimes tracked after sightings by locals or when they use someone’s internet hotspot connectivity.
“They move in gro🌜ups of two men and sometimes they are in a group of seven which means that they split sometimes and then merge at other instances,” the official added.
The Director General of Police (DGP) RR Swain in August said that there are only around 15 locals remaining in militant ranks, while approximately 70 to are active. The DGP termed it significant that for the 🔯first time in three decades the number of locals is less than that of the foreigners.
The security establishment, however, believes that the overall numbers of active militants are lesser, even as they are spread across the territory, and hence does not count as a major concern. “They remain in isolated areas with minimal contact with the locals, many of whom will ultimately turn hostile against the unwanted visitors. The communication transcripts also show that they are being advised♏ against meeting with locals or staying at their hom🔯es,” the senior officer said.
The surge of attacks were reported months after the military represen🌠tatives in India and Pakistan renewed agreement to observe a ceasefire along the LoC in February 2021. While the fragile agreement continues to hold up, security officials believe, infiltration along the old routes, paꦆrticularly in Jammu areas along the International Border (IB), have exposed vulnerabilities in the region.
Many officials are also of the opinion that the influx of foreigners and subsequent violence in Jammu can be to offset the advantage India may have aimed to gain at a time when Pakistan has thinned its military presence to launch operation Azm e Istekham against outfits including the TTP and the Baloch insur🥀gents. Then there are the high-pitched announcements about wresting Kashmir’s remaining territory from Pakistan’s control.
The face-off between the Indian Army and People Liberation Army (PLA) in Galwan Valley along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh also resulted in the thinning of “division-size” military presence in Jammu, according to a secur𒈔ity official, which may have been one of the factors exploited by the militant groups.
The senior Army officer, however, said that the security presence was thinned mostly in the hinterland than along the LoC, given the relative peace observed in the region fo💙r years. “I think more than the number of troops, it was about the orientation of the troops that played a role in the situation,” he🅘 said.
While the spillover in Jammu is also seen in the backdrop of heightened surveillance and crackdown in Kashmir valley, there seems to be little reason for the security officials to believe that the militants currently 🤡active in Jammu will shift base to Kashmir.
“With the onset of winter season, there is a possibility that those using deep forests and upper reaches to their advantage will move towards settlements for sustenance and that is when the possibility of establishing contacts wi𝓰ll likely increase,” the officer from Doda said.
