Private weather forecasting agency Skymet has predicted a normal monsoon this year for India, with comparatively more rainfall in the second half of the season. This matches the early predictions by scientists of India Meteorological Department (IMD), who have detected signs of a favourable monsoon season this year with fading El Nino conditions and reduced snow cover over Eurasia.
The IMD will issue a monsoon forecast latꦬer this month.
Skymet said the upc💖oming monsoon is expected to be "normal", accounting for 102 per cent - with an error margin of 5 per cent - of the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm for the four months from June to September, according to a PTI report.
LPA of rainfall is the rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given interval (l🌞ike month or season) avera💟ge over a long period like 30 years, 50-years etc, as per IMD.
Rainfall between 96 per cent and ๊104 per cent of the LPA i🦹s considered normal.
Skymet said it expects sufficiently good rains in the south, west, and northwest regions. The cor⛎e monsoon rain-fed zones of Maharashtra and Madhya Praไdesh will receive adequate rainfall.
Risk Of Deficit Rainfall In These States
Eastern states of Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, and West Bengal are at risk of deficit rainfall during the peak monsoon months of July and August, Skymet has predicted, adding that Northeast India is likely to observe less than norma𒊎l rains during th🅺e first half of the season.
"El Nino is s🍸wiftly flipp⛦ing over to La Nina. And, monsoon circulation tends to be stronger during La Nina years," news agency PTI quoted Jatin Singh, the managing director at Skymet, as saying.
"Also, the transition from Super El Nino to strong La Nina has historicall🍌y tended to produce a decent monsoon. However, the monsoon season may start with a risk of impairment, attributable to the remnant effects of El Nino. The second half of the season will have an overwhelming edge over♑ the primal phase," he added.
India recorꩲded "below-average" cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period aver💖age of 868.6 mm -- in 2023, which was an El Nino year. Before 2023, India recorded "normal" and "above-normal" rainfall in the monsoon season for four years in a row.
El Nino conditions -- periodic warming ofඣ surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.
IM♏D officials earlier this month said La Nina conditions, associated with a favourable monsoon in India, are likely to set in𓄧 the second part of the season.
(with PTI inputs)
