The Numbers Game: Fulham Targeting FA Cup Revenge Against Manchester United

Manchester United have endured a historically bad campaign in the Premier League, with Ruben Amorim failing to inspire anything resembling a new manager bounce. (More Sports News)

✅They are on course for their lowest league finish since they were last relegated in 1973-74, despite digging deep with 10 men to beat Ipswich Town 3-2 in midweek.

𝐆But United have recent history of turning up in the FA Cup, having lifted the trophy under Erik ten Hag while recording their worst-ever Premier League finish last season.

✱On Sunday, they host in-form Fulham in the same competition, with Marco Silva's team having boosted their European hopes by winning 2-1 at Wolves on Tuesday.

♎Former United midfielder Andreas Pereira is determined to continue fighting on two fronts, telling Fulham TV: "It's important to us to stay in the cup as well as pushing high in the league. For me, it's going to be a particularly special game."

൩The Brazil international has also not forgotten what happened when these teams last faced off in the FA Cup, with United triumphing 3-1 in the 2022-23 quarter-finals.

൲"We still have that feeling from the first year I was here, with what happened, and for sure we are going to be prepared for everything," he said, reflecting on that game. 

📖"It's a special game, a special place for everyone. Two times this year we lost against them, and we want to win this game."

What's expected? 

💟United are the Opta supercomputer's favourites to progress, with the Red Devils assigned a 45.3% chance of victory inside 90 minutes.

ꦍThat means Fulham are given a 54.7% chance of either winning or taking the tie to extra time and potentially penalties. They are assigned a 27.8% chance of victory, with the likelihood of a draw rated at 26.9%.

🥂United have progressed from their last nine FA Cup ties against Fulham since suffering a 2-1 quarter-final defeat in 1908.

꧒This is the fourth time Fulham are facing the holders of the FA Cup in the competition, being eliminated on each of the previous three occasions (4-5 versus Newcastle United in 1955-56, 1-2 against West Brom in 1968-69 and 0-4 versus Manchester City in 2019-20).

🌸United, meanwhile, have progressed from each of their last 14 FA Cup fifth-round ties since losing 1-0 to Liverpool in 2005-06. 

🎃Indeed, the Red Devils have reached the quarter-finals of the competition in nine of the last 10 campaigns. Fulham are looking to make the last eight for the second time in three years, having beaten Leeds United 2-0 at this stage in 2022-23.

Red Devils to tweak approach?

🍬Following Patrick Dorgu's horror lunge on Omari Hutchinson, United played more than half of Wednesday's clash with Ipswich with a numerical disadvantage, yet Harry Maguire's header early in the second half gave Amorim's men something to defend.

🌄After seeing his team grind out a valuable victory, Amorim was asked whether his players were more comfortable defending deep than when taking the initiative.

꧑The former Sporting CP boss said: "I think that is clear, it is hard for me. Sometimes it’s like you are fighting. 

💟"It is really hard for me to play like we played in the second half, but I feel the players are more comfortable sometimes defending in the low block."

꧂The stats bear that out somewhat. United have enjoyed over 50% possession in 11 domestic matches under Amorim, only winning three of those games while drawing two and losing six, giving them a 27.3% win rate.

🐼In the eight such games where United have had less than 50% possession, they have recorded three wins, two draws and three defeats for a marginally better win rate of 37.5%. One of those draws resulted in a penalty shoot-out triumph over Arsenal in the FA Cup third round.

ꦡWhile United are unlikely to intentionally cede possession, particularly in a home knockout tie, granting Fulham space to counter through Adama Traore and Antonee Robinson would be unwise.

🍎But if the Red Devils are to avoid having to chase the game, they simply must cut out the slow starts. Since Amorim's first game in charge on November 24, they have conceded the first goal in more Premier League games than any other side (12).

꧒In attack, Amorim will want more from Rasmus Hojlund, who had just 12 touches before being substituted against Ipswich – less than half the amount registered by any other starter from either team.

🌳Hojlund has gone 17 games without a goal since netting against Viktoria Plzen in the Europa League in December, but the Dane has actually overperformed his underlying figures this campaign, netting seven times from chances totalling 6.1 expected goals (xG). With Amorim's options limited, he is likely to keep his place.

Silva targeting revenge

ꦚWhen United and Fulham last met in the FA Cup, Silva's men led 1-0 with 15 minutes to play and were on course to reach the semi-finals for just the second time in their history.

﷽However, Willian's handball to concede a penalty brought about a complete capitulation, which started with the Brazilian being sent off. Silva's touchline protests ensured he also saw red, then Aleksandr Mitrovic pushed Chris Kavanagh's arm and swiftly joined them.

♔When order was restored, Bruno Fernandes tucked home from the spot, with United going on to win 3-1.

𒉰Demoralising defeats against United are nothing new for Fulham, who have won just one of their last 21 meetings with United across all competitions (three draws, 17 defeats). 

🔯The Red Devils have beaten them 1-0 twice already this season, on the opening Premier League matchday at Old Trafford, then at Craven Cottage just one month ago. 

ജBut Fulham will approach this game in high spirits, with their victory at Wolves making it five wins in their last six away games in all competitions, including the last four in a row.

ဣSilva showcased his tactical flexibility at Molineux, as regular starters Robinson, Raul Jimenez, Calvin Bassey and Alex Iwobi were rotated with one eye on Sunday's fixture.

𒀰Defending a 2-1 lead in the second half, Fulham enjoyed just 33% of the possession after dropping into a compact 5-3-2, yet they still won the expected goals (xG) battle by 0.95 to 0.49, making far more of their 20 final-third entries than Wolves did of their 48.

♎With Fulham finding new ways to win games and their key players being refreshed ahead of the biggest game of their season, Silva will feel good about their chances.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Manchester United – Bruno Fernandes

𝓡Fernandes' importance to United cannot be understated, and Amorim probably will not want to even consider where his team might be without his compatriot.

๊The playmaker has been involved in 11 goals in his last 11 appearances in the FA Cup, scoring seven and assisting four. 

♎He has only failed to register a goal or an assist in two of these 11 games, and the Portugal midfielder scored twice when United broke Fulham's hearts in this competition in 2022-23.

Fulham – Antonee Robinson

⭕Robinson's 10 Premier League assists this season are at least four more than any other defender, with Liverpool's Trent Alexander-Arnold recording six.

💯Among all defenders in the top flight, the American also ranks second for open-play chances created (35), third for successful crosses (36) and third for progressive carries of 10 yards or more (112).

🍒Robinson is a strong candidate to make the Premier League's Team of the Season and has attracted interest from several top clubs, so United must be wary of the threat he provides on the left flank.